3 Oct · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1472
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kral
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1450
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlumsky🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 73% (91)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H10-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.