3 Oct · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1498
FormLLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mandrysz
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1406
FormLWLLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Lysek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (35)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+92
H2H14-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-11)