3 Oct · 13:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1512
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zelezny
DZ
🇨🇿Daniel Zelezny
ELO 1588
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Zelezny
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H14-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-4)