3 Oct · 08:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1417
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Snr
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1406
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lysek🌟Lysek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (35)
Fair odds · Snr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H2-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.