3 Oct · 13:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1518
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Skvrna
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1618
FormWWLLW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (170)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+100
H2H20-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+100)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-10)