3 Oct · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Stempak
ELO 1422
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stempak
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1411
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Stempak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 17% (12)
Fair odds · Stempak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.