3 Oct · 15:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1580
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Moravec
AC
🇨🇿Ales Cizek
ELO 1488
FormLLLWL
57%
43%
🌟Cizek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (110)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+92
H2H13-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-6)