4 Oct · 09:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1580
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vonasek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1523
FormWLWWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 66% · 1.53· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H43-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-16)