4 Oct · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1474
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vavricka
SM
🇨🇿Simon Mezlik
ELO 1465
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Vavricka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.