4 Oct · 10:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RV
🇨🇿Richard Vavricka
ELO 1474
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Martin
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1525
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
🌟Vavricka covers set handicap as underdog 68% (37)
Fair odds · Martin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.