4 Oct · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1407
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Snr
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1408
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Lysek covers set handicap as underdog 69% (36)
Fair odds · Snr
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H2-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.