4 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1614
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Stusek
FS
🇨🇿Filip Strejc
ELO 1571
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strejc
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H88-76
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.