4 Oct · 08:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1482
FormLLWLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1580
FormWLWWW
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H45-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (45-23)