4 Oct · 10:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PR
🇨🇿Pavel Rissky
ELO 1529
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Vonasek
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1580
FormWLWWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rissky
Fair odds · Vonasek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.