4 Oct · 10:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KZ
🇨🇿Krzysztof Zapala
ELO 1528
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Guzy
KG
🇨🇿Karol Guzy
ELO 1620
FormLLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Guzy
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+92
H2H79-45
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (79-45)