5 Oct · 08:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1566
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Matus
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1493
FormWLLLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 71% (51)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H11-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)