5 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1497
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Filipek
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1458
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Kral goes over total as underdog 68% (181)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H49-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.