5 Oct · 08:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1430
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Chlumsky
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1450
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 68% (94)
Fair odds · Chlumsky
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H16-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.