5 Oct · 10:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1493
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1477
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 66% (107)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.