5 Oct · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Palan
ELO 1513
FormWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Neterda
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1533
FormLLLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.