5 Oct · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1608
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mrowetz
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Slavik
ELO 1570
FormLWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Slavik🌟Slavik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (39)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.