5 Oct · 11:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1544
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gola
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1536
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Gola
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H48-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.