5 Oct · 16:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1545
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Melichar
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1458
FormLLLLL
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hendrych🌟Hendrych covers set handicap as underdog 66% (101)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)