5 Oct · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1470
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ogrocki
MJ
🇨🇿Michal Janik
ELO 1451
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🌟Janik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (44)
Fair odds · Ogrocki
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.