6 Oct · 09:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1472
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Filipek
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1484
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Balcar goes over total as underdog 64% (86)
Fair odds · Filipek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H15-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.