6 Oct · 09:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1497
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1545
FormLLLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strelec🌟Strelec covers set handicap as underdog 68% (56)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H11-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.