6 Oct · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1573
FormLWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krenek
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Krenek
ELO 1597
FormWWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Krenek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (126)
Fair odds · Krenek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H44-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.