6 Oct · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1451
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Balcar
FB
🇨🇿Frantisek Balcar
ELO 1472
FormWLLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlumsky🌟Balcar rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (38)
Fair odds · Balcar
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H4-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.