6 Oct · 15:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dominik Stefek
ELO 1488
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stefek
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1457
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Stefek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (50)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.