6 Oct · 16:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1512
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mandrysz
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1454
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 64% (132)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H36-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-30)