6 Oct · 16:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1486
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1527
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cerny🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (67)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H18-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.