6 Oct · 18:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1527
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Volek
ELO 1488
FormWLLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volek🌟Volek covers set handicap as underdog 71% (17)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.