6 Oct · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1457
FormWLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1512
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 64% (114)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+55
H2H16-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.