6 Oct · 20:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1512
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Flesar
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1482
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🌟Kabelka covers set handicap as underdog 63% (51)
Fair odds · Flesar
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H11-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.