6 Oct · 19:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Miroslav Dolezal
ELO 1447
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dolezal
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zustina
ELO 1427
FormLLWWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zustina🌟Zustina covers set handicap as underdog 62% (24)
Fair odds · Dolezal
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.