6 Oct · 16:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1569
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skulina
DS
🇨🇿David Skulina
ELO 1606
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
🌟Krupnik covers set handicap as underdog 65% (109)
Fair odds · Skulina
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.