6 Oct · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1616
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Rek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1542
FormLWWWW
56%
44%
Fair odds · Rek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H35-30
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (35-30)