6 Oct · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1302
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Nemec
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1338
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (121)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H39-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.