6 Oct · 18:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1454
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1457
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 64% (132)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H62-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.