6 Oct · 20:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RK
🇨🇿Rene Kowal
ELO 1583
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1621
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kowal🌟Sarganek stays under total as favourite 64% (101)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~71 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H30-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.