6 Oct · 22:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1621
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Sarganek
AB
🇨🇿Antonin Baros
ELO 1512
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
🌟Sarganek stays under total as favourite 64% (101)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H42-29
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-29)