6 Oct · 19:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1516
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1527
FormLWWLL
49%
51%
🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (67)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H18-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.