6 Oct · 23:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1731
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cerny
OK
🇨🇿Ondrej Kadavy
ELO 1697
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 31% · 3.21· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H13-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.