7 Oct · 07:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1479
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kindl
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1472
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Kindl goes over total as favourite 72% (81)
Fair odds · Kindl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.