7 Oct · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1474
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pawlik
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1468
FormLLWWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (80)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.