7 Oct · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1547
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Stapor
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1639
FormWLWWL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+92
H2H50-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (50-28)