7 Oct · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1580
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lysakowski
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1548
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H98-111
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.