7 Oct · 15:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VN
🇨🇿Vaclav Nadvornik
ELO 1675
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cerny
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1711
FormLLWLL
47%
53%
🌟Nadvornik covers set handicap as underdog 72% (32)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H34-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.