7 Oct · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1531
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1499
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (67)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H40-45
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.