7 Oct · 16:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1486
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sochor
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1499
FormLWLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 67% (108)
Fair odds · Sochor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H8-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.